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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 4 page paper explores the idea that there are lower fuel or gas prices just before an election. The paper performs an hypothesis test using primary data of gasoline (petrol) process in the US in election years to try prove, or disprove, that there is a correlation. The paper shows the data and the process of performing an hypothesis test. The bibliography cites 3 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEecogas.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
electorate as indicators of the economy; the theory is that if these rise there will be a reaction against the incumbent government and more of the electorate will either abstain
or vote for the opposition. In the US with oil company magnates holding high office it is possible to argue that there is also a more direct power to delay
price increases. The questions is whether or not this is a real phenomenon, or whether it is simply an inaccurate observations where greater credence is given to the theory than
to the reality. One way of testing this is with a statistical test, taking data from the fuel industry and comparing the average prices in the run up to
elections to the average prices for gasoline. For this we will consider the years of the presidential elections, 1996, 2000 and 2004, we will take the average price of gasoline
in the four months before voting took place and compare this to the average price for the whole year, theoretically as voting takes place in November and this is towards
the end of the year there should be little if any different from the annual average, if anything it should be slightly higher due to inflation. There are many tests
we can undertake using this data, but for the comparison of data sets to asses if there is or is not a correlation the most appropriate test is a Chi
squared test, this will help to establish if there is a correlation between the data sets, however it does not tell us why. This test takes the observed data and
compares it to expected levels. For the expected levels we will use the averages for the entire year. Gasoline prices are taken from the beginning of each month. The data
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