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This 5 page paper focuses on the U.S. economy and predictions made in a 2000 article. Those predictions are carefully evaluated to see what writers got right and what they got wrong. Bibliography lists 4 sources.
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5 pages (~225 words per page)
File: RT13_SA349eco.rtf
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doing well next year. Of course, economists can only predict trends, not individual progress. Still, people hang on to every word that economists say and to the predictions. On the
McLaughlin Group that airs once per week, the host asks panelists for their quick thoughts. He simply says "predictions" as they go around to the four guests and then McLaughlin
tells them what will happen, or at least his opinion. And while these predictions are made by educated people, no one has a crystal ball. It is interesting to take
an article from several years ago to see not only how different the economy was then, but also what the analysts got right and what they got wrong.
II. The 2000 Article on the Sate of the Economy In February of 2000, an article in Business Week appeared with some economic worries. The article examined the increases in
federal funds along with the discount interest rate to come from the Fed (Cooper & Madigan, 2000). Little did authors know then that the Fed would be quite proactive in
the years to come. The Fed then was worried about inflation risk (2000). Of course, inflation never became a problem but that is likely due to quick action taken by
the Federal Reserve throughout the years. The article begins as follows: "How do you lasso a runaway New Economy? The old-fashioned way: with higher interest rates. But in light
of some eye-popping new data, a more disturbing question is emerging: Just how high will rates have to go?" (2000, p.35). According to authors, growth rates of 5.7% and
5.8% for real GDP during 1999s third and fourth quarters, heighten the risk of the U.S. economy "overheating" (Cooper & Madigan, 2000). Authors claim that there is
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