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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 3 page paper addressing the fact that probability analysis often goes awry. This paper explores the potential problems that could have led to the failure of all of the engines on a three engine aircraft. Bibliography lists 1 source.
Page Count:
3 pages (~225 words per page)
File: AM2_PPprobab.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
Probability analysis is used in practically every discipline. It helps us understand the risks and possibilities in life. This understanding has been sought since
ancient times. Aristotle, for example, distinguished between luck and chance. He outlined the cause of various outcomes and distinguished between coincidental causes and demonstrative causes, contending that both
luck and chance can have coincidental causes. The point that should be made is that regardless of how committed we are to assigning probability, there are always factors that
we have failed to consider. Consider, for example, a situation where a certain probability has been determined that one of three
aircraft engines might fail or that all three might fail simultaneously. In this scenario a three-engine jet plane departs from Miami International Airport enroute to South America and immediately
experiences the failure of one engine. Before it can return to the airport both of the other engines have failed. Probability analysis suggests that the probability of losing
all three engines on this plane was one chance in a trillion. Obviously, this is a case of probability analysis gone awry!
Although probability analysis attempts to take all factors into consideration the reality is that this is an impossible task. There are simply too many problems that could erupt.
Faulty fuel, for example, could have caused the sequential failure of each of these engines. The plane could have flown through a flock of birds. After hitting the
first bird and losing the first engine the pilot turned around in an attempt to make it back to the airport. He could have encountered the same flock of
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