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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 6 page paper, two pages of which are devoted to determining greater utility in a game of chance involving different colored marbles and three pages of which are devoted to analyzing the article “Overcoming the Power of Death” by Parker Scudder II in terms of its logic. The author uses the criteria outlined in Daisie and Michael Radner’s book “Science and Unreason” to expose Scudder’s article as pseudoscience. No additional sources are listed.
Page Count:
6 pages (~225 words per page)
File: AM2_PPutilit.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
In a game involving an urn with a total marble content of two hundred (a total comprised of one hundred red, forty green, thirty blue, twenty yellow, and ten white),
the first draw would result in a 100/200 chance of drawing a red marble, a 40/200 chance of drawing a green marble, a 30/200 chance of drawing a yellow marble,
and a 10/100 chance of drawing a white marble. On the second draw (keeping in mind the first marble, whatever its color is not replaced) would result in approximately
the same chances of drawing each color. Because the terms of this game results in a ten dollar fee for the two draws and rewards twenty dollars if even
one of the marbles is green, the maximum expected utility would be ten dollars (the reward minus the fee). Because the game rewards five dollars if neither is green
the maximum loss would be five dollars (the reward minus the fee in this case results in a loss. In a game involving
the same total number of marbles, the same color composition noted above, and the same fee per two draws of ten dollars; the chances of drawing each color are the
same. In this game, however, you are rewarded $350 if you draw a combination of a white and either a yellow or a blue. The maximum expected utility
would be $340 (the reward minus the fee) and the maximum expected loss would be $10 (the fee alone since there is no reward unless the appropriate combination is drawn).
Because the chances of drawing a white are one forth than that of drawing a green (10/200 verses 40/200) the
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